OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
JANUARY 16 2013


Tonight's video timeline

0:00 - 3:30 Overview and where the rain will fall
3:30 - 16:30 The Coral Sea/ Gulf LOW in detail
16:30 - 21:55 - NW region LOW/cyclone
21:55 - end - long term both LOWS/cyclones and the next Gulf LOW.

Next update January 17

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In tonight's video (uploaded early on the 18th January 2013)

We look at a very interesting and wet period over tropical Australia.

The Tropical LOW in the Gulf has formed and will interact very interestingly with a weak LOW expected to form off the Cairns to Townsville region over the weekend. The result could be very important in determining how much rain will fall and where the resulting cyclone will go.

The WA situation too hangs on a knife edge, at this stage if the WA LOW pushes offshore, it is likely to deepen significantly into a strong cyclone later next week. But doubt exists as to whether it will push offshore or not at this very early stage.

Tonight's timeline:
0:00 - 7:10 where will the rain fall at this stage?
7:10 - 9:55 - Where is the already formed Gulf LOW
9:55 - 19:55 - The uncertainty, the dance of the Gulf and Qld LOWS and the resulting cyclone
19:55 - 24:15 - An ensemble model look at both the Western Oz LOW and the Coral Sea/Gulf LOW/s
24:15 - 30:00 - The possibilities of the WA cyclone/LOW next week.

Next update 18th January 2013



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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
JANUARY 18 2013

Tonight's 30 min video deals with:
0:00 - 6:45 Western Australian LOW/cyclone
6:45 - 22:10 - The Gulf LOW/cyclone
22:10 - 28:55 - A closer look at the North Queensland coast Cooktown to Mackay
28:55 - 31:45 - Where the rain will fall (at this stage)

Next Update January 19

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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
JANUARY 19 2013

PART 1 DEALS WITH WA

PART 2 DEALS WITH QLD AND THE GULF

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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
JANUARY 20 2013

PART 1 DEALS WITH THE LOWS AND CYCLONES

PART 2 DEALS WITH THE QUEENSLAND RAIN

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PART 2 CAN BE FOUND HERE

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
RAIN UPDATE NE QUEENSLAND
JANUARY 21 2013

A brief look tonight at the updated model predictions of rainfall in the north of Queensland. Thankfully those crazy totals that models were predicting last night have been scaled back. Now places are looking like copping 100 - 200mm/day between Townsville and Cairns but not for more than 3 days in a row.

MUCH DEPENDS ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF OSWALD. If Oswald tracks south or south-east after hitting the Western Cape, rainfalls may sharply increase. If he decides to head towards the NT, rainfalls may decrease further.



Our Oswald cyclone update will follow

Then our WA cyclone update will follow that.

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Thanks.

OCC OSWALD UPDATE JANUARY 21ST 2013

TC Oswald update January 21 2013

We talk about Oswald landfalling on the West Peninsula coastline. But most importantly we talk about where Oswald might go in the longer term.

We look at strike probabilities from the major global models and go deep into what they are 'thinking' by taking such incredibly different longer term tracks.

The UKMET scenario would be a worse case scenario for the populated East Queensland coast while the ECMWF scenario would result in a more significant cyclone as it tracks back over the Gulf.

The Bureau and JTWC have low confidence tracks for the all important day 3-6 period. So watch this space

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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE UPDATE
JANUARY 21 2013

We see the potential for a weak cyclone to form off the Pilbara coastline in the 2 - 4 day time frame and we see that the cyclone/LOW will remain pretty close to the coast. In the longer term the cyclone/LOW is expected to wash out with only a small probability for landfall on the West Pilbara or Gascoyne coastlines late in the week. We will continue to watch this region.

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Thanks for watching our video updates tonight

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
NE QUEENSLAND FLOOD UPDATE VIDEO
22ND JANUARY 2013



PART TWO SHOULD BE UP IN AN HOUR AND WILL FOCUS ON EX OSWALD AND ITS FUTURE MOVEMENT.

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
CYCLONE UPDATE JANUARY 22
EX TROPICAL CYCLONE OSWALD

A REMINDER WE ARE CHATTING LIVE WITH WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER'S QUALIFIED METEOROLOGIST ROBERT SPETA AT 1PM QUEENSLAND TIME SO CATCH THAT HERE OR ON OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.OZCYCLONECHASERS.COM.AU

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
WA TROPICAL CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE JAN 22 2013

We take a look tonight at the chances of Peta forming and then some very clear model agreement on where Peta or the LOW ends up hitting land.

A REMINDER THAT AT 1PM JANUARY 23RD (QLD TIME OR 03UTC) WE ARE CONDUCTING A LIVE GOOGLE HANGOUT SESSION WITH METEOROLOGIST ROBERT SPETA FROM Westernpacificweather SO JOIN US AND ASK ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT WHAT THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE DOING LIVE.

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Thanks for watching our THREE video updates tonight

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
NE QUEENSLAND FLOOD UPDATE VIDEO
22ND JANUARY 2013





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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
NE QUEENSLAND FLOOD UPDATE VIDEO
23RD JANUARY 2013 PM UPDATE

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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
JANUARY 23 2013
EX TROPICAL CYCLONE OSWALD

We look at the potential for reformation of Ex Oswald between Bowen and Cardwell overnight tonight and into tomorrow. What are the chances of him actually getting offshore?




AN UPDATE ON TC PETA IS STILL COOKING

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
CYCLONE PETA VIDEO UPDATE
JANUARY 23 2013

We take a final look at the very weak Tropical Cyclone Peta who made landfall east of Karratha today. No damage has been reported and the system dumped some nice rain on places east of it. Almost the perfect cyclone except for the millions it may've cost the mining industry for the ports being shut down of course.

Anyway, the next week to 10 days are looking all clear for the NW. So we won't have another update for this region until something looks like developing. We'll go back to our normal twice weekly updates for the region now with the next one on Friday.

Thanks for watching.