Believe it or not today on paper presents a better chance for canberra, who would have thought. What the models failed to predict was the influence of the stable air mass off the coastal part pushing in as far as the ACT which undercut anything trying to go up. You could see it on the ranges late avo yesterday with convection being starved of a low level infeed which to put quite simply was a disappointment.
Going by ACCESS our low level fetch will be from the NE, which Sydney and surrounds will be around the 30 mark with dps in mid to high teens, which in theory should drive more moisture into the Bungendore / Braidwood area. ACCESS shows convergence with this NE infeed with a dryer NW which is a classic set up for something worthwhile to our east. Steering may be a concern though coming in from the W / SW, if anything initiates it will take off into no-mans land.
There's some drying in the mids which i hope presents better structured cells and not the muck that we got stuck with 2 days ago, what a joke that was.
With CAPE around 1500 and Li's around 3-4 we'd need to achieve this by getting to 28ºC and a dp of 17. which is not out of the question, but to be prudent i'd say it will be more like 28/ 15.
There's some turn in the shear, but it's not strong, so i think if anything goes up it could fall down back on itself.
At least we have blue skies here atm, lets hope some heating and a nice boundary forms nearby and just hopefully we can get some much needed runs on the board..... i'm sounding like a broken record atm!