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TOPIC: Thunderstorms 26th Nov-1st Dec 2012

Re: Thunderstorms 26th Nov-1st Dec 2012 28 Nov 2012 16:33 #1

  • gsorenson
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Update warning which now includes the ST.... right where Troy should be.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for LARGE HAILSTONES, HEAVY RAINFALL and DAMAGING WIND
For people in the Northern Rivers, North West Slopes and Plains, Northern Tablelands and parts of the Mid North Coast, Central Tablelands, Southern Tablelands, Central West Slopes and Plains and South West Slopes Forecast Districts.
Issued at 4:06 pm Wednesday, 28 November 2012.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce large hailstones, heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Orange, Grafton, Armidale, Tamworth, Gunnedah and Narrabri.

www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN65156.shtml
Last Edit: 28 Nov 2012 16:35 by gsorenson.
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Re: Thunderstorms 26th Nov-1st Dec 2012 29 Nov 2012 08:33 #2

  • gsorenson
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Believe it or not today on paper presents a better chance for canberra, who would have thought. What the models failed to predict was the influence of the stable air mass off the coastal part pushing in as far as the ACT which undercut anything trying to go up. You could see it on the ranges late avo yesterday with convection being starved of a low level infeed which to put quite simply was a disappointment.

Going by ACCESS our low level fetch will be from the NE, which Sydney and surrounds will be around the 30 mark with dps in mid to high teens, which in theory should drive more moisture into the Bungendore / Braidwood area. ACCESS shows convergence with this NE infeed with a dryer NW which is a classic set up for something worthwhile to our east. Steering may be a concern though coming in from the W / SW, if anything initiates it will take off into no-mans land.

There's some drying in the mids which i hope presents better structured cells and not the muck that we got stuck with 2 days ago, what a joke that was.

With CAPE around 1500 and Li's around 3-4 we'd need to achieve this by getting to 28ºC and a dp of 17. which is not out of the question, but to be prudent i'd say it will be more like 28/ 15.

There's some turn in the shear, but it's not strong, so i think if anything goes up it could fall down back on itself.
At least we have blue skies here atm, lets hope some heating and a nice boundary forms nearby and just hopefully we can get some much needed runs on the board..... i'm sounding like a broken record atm!

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Re: Thunderstorms 26th Nov-1st Dec 2012 30 Nov 2012 12:04 #3

  • Leopold
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Temps are now, as expected, in the high 30's across most of the hunter. Currently in Cessnock it's 37/14. It's a long shot to hope for storms up here this afternoon, I think most of the action will be further south.
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Re: Thunderstorms 26th Nov-1st Dec 2012 30 Nov 2012 13:59 #4

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Small cell just popped up southwest of wollombi... perhaps a sign of a good evening ahead.
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Re: Thunderstorms 26th Nov-1st Dec 2012 30 Nov 2012 21:03 #5

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Re: Thunderstorms 26th Nov-1st Dec 2012 01 Dec 2012 16:48 #6

  • Leopold
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Still currently 35/18 even with an easterly. Not the nicest day to be outside.
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Re: Thunderstorms 26th Nov-1st Dec 2012 01 Dec 2012 20:21 #7

  • Leopold
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Another couple tonight. Been a bit spoiled with lightning over the last 48hrs!

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