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TOPIC: SEQ Severe Storms 17th and 18th November 2012

SEQ Severe Storms 17th and 18th November 2012 17 Nov 2012 11:41 #1

  • ShaneE
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Greetings all,

As many people are aware by now, South East Queensland and North East NSW are in for a severe storm weekend this weekend with a severe storm already causing havoc in the Brisbane area.

Reports of a roof collapse and wind damage in the city also.

This afternoon will most likely see further developments, potentially severe.
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Re: SEQ Severe Storms 17th and 18th November 2012 17 Nov 2012 12:01 #2

Our ensemble guidance suggests 5 distinct rounds Shane. It looks like round 1 occured about an hour early though so perhaps deduct an hour from each of the expeted times.

Ensemble storm forecast for Brisbane city

Round 1 = 12-1PM (arrived slightly early, but overall pretty accurate should now easy to cloudy/drizzly conditions in preparation for round 2
round 2 - 3-5PM (possibly severe)
round 3 - 9-11PM (possibly severe)
Round 4 - 4-6AM
Round 5 - 8-10AM sunday (possibly severe)

These are the most favoured times of storms impacting the CBD today and tomorrow using a mix of ECMWF,JMA, GFS,UKmET data. I don't think any of the BoM's ACCESS suite is included.
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Re: SEQ Severe Storms 17th and 18th November 2012 17 Nov 2012 12:03 #3

  • ShaneE
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Thanks Nitso, will be interesting to see how the BoM issue warnings for this system. So far Round 1 seems to be a failure as they issued the warning after the storm had passed the CBD.
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Re: SEQ Severe Storms 17th and 18th November 2012 17 Nov 2012 12:03 #4

Pretty awesome image from the KG markets in brissy shared on social media.

why the hell weren't these cancelled is beyond understanding???
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Re: SEQ Severe Storms 17th and 18th November 2012 17 Nov 2012 12:07 #5

  • ShaneE
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Seems they didn't hear about the potential for today. I don't know about up there but when storms are forecast down here, there is no detail given about the severity. It is generally 'Possible Storms' as the forecast (Thanks to GFE)...and the media report it as such, so it is rare that events are cancelled due to a forecast of storms.

If a warning was issued well before the storm made it to the city, then it is possible that the event may have been called off, or at least allowed them time to prepare for it.
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Re: SEQ Severe Storms 17th and 18th November 2012 17 Nov 2012 20:33 #6

  • tmorrow
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Hi Shane,

This is the time when we need your analytical tools up and running.

Tim Morrow
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Re: SEQ Severe Storms 17th and 18th November 2012 20 Nov 2012 14:05 #7

  • SCHUMMY
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WOW what an awesome weekend that turned out to be!

Scored an awesome meso near Millmerran on Saturday, nice light show at Crows Nest and some epic large hail near Boonah on Sunday!

I am just starting to go through all my footage so I'll post them in here when I am done. A chase report will also be written up in due time :)
Last Edit: 26 Nov 2012 12:32 by SCHUMMY. Reason: wrong day
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Re: SEQ Severe Storms 17th and 18th November 2012 26 Nov 2012 12:38 #8

  • SCHUMMY
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Well I have finally edited all my photos from 3 days worth of chasing.

Awesome Meso near Millmerran, Darling Downs on Saturday 17th.


Rest of the photos can be found here:

www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.438891...2065398507809&type=1

Wall cloud moving over the hills and I am getting ready for the core punch on Sunday 18th.


The hail I got in this storm on Sunday 18th.


And what my car looks like now haha


Rest of the photos can be found here:

www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.440890...2065398507809&type=1
Last Edit: 26 Nov 2012 12:40 by SCHUMMY. Reason: forgot car pic
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