Welcome, Guest
Username: Password: Remember me

TOPIC: OCC Video Outlooks

OCC Video Outlooks 31 Oct 2012 00:19 #1

Please find our video outlooks issued most days of the November 1 to April 30 2012/2013 Australian Tropical Cyclone season. Video outlooks are normally posted between 7PM and 10PM on days where tropical development is possible within a week to 10 days in the Australian Area Of Responsibility.

Please note that outlooks posted are the thoughts of Oz Cyclone Chasers and are not to be used as an official resource for information, nor are our outlooks endorsed by any official agencies. For all official tropical cyclone information please consult the Bureau Of Meteorology at www.bom.gov.au
The topic has been locked.

Re: OCC Video Outlooks 31 Oct 2012 00:45 #2

  • Wal
  • OFFLINE
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 4
  • Thank you received: 2
  • Karma: 0
Looking forward to your outlooks Nitso
Oz Cyclone Chasers - Wal
The topic has been locked.

Re: OCC Video Outlooks 01 Nov 2012 21:25 #3

Our first Oz Cyclone Chasers Update :)

Please feel free to offer some feedback and ask some questions :)

The topic has been locked.

Re: OCC Video Outlooks 01 Nov 2012 22:03 #4

  • Wal
  • OFFLINE
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 4
  • Thank you received: 2
  • Karma: 0
Well done Nitso, great start to your outlooks.
Oz Cyclone Chasers - Wal
The topic has been locked.
The following user(s) said Thank You: ozcyclonechasernitso

Re: OCC Video Outlooks 02 Nov 2012 09:39 #5

  • ShaneE
  • OFFLINE
  • Secretary
  • Posts: 21
  • Thank you received: 3
  • Karma: 0
Very nice Nitso!
The topic has been locked.
The following user(s) said Thank You: ozcyclonechasernitso

Re: OCC Video Outlooks 02 Nov 2012 18:36 #6

  • Melkizadec
  • OFFLINE
  • Fresh Boarder
  • Posts: 1
  • Thank you received: 1
  • Karma: 1
Once again most informative video. They become a high light for me. Please keep up the work and look forward to following you again for another season
The topic has been locked.
The following user(s) said Thank You: ozcyclonechasernitso

Re: OCC Video Outlooks 04 Nov 2012 13:51 #7

  • poida84
  • OFFLINE
  • Fresh Boarder
  • Posts: 3
  • Thank you received: 1
  • Karma: 0
some great info there mate keep them coming :D ive also liked the FB page so i look forward to any infos coming in there too :D
The topic has been locked.
The following user(s) said Thank You: ozcyclonechasernitso

Re: OCC Video Outlooks 06 Nov 2012 20:19 #8

Please take a look at our second Oz Cyclone chasers update.

In it we look at what the next fortnight has in store rainfall wise across Australia as well as the big interest area later in November in the far NE Coral Sea and SW Pacific. Models are pretty confident that this region will see a LOW pressure system develop but the prevailing steering at the time is likely to push it further away from Australia towards the South-East.

Last Edit: 06 Nov 2012 20:22 by ozcyclonechasernitso.
The topic has been locked.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Mick K

Re: OCC Video Outlooks 06 Nov 2012 21:12 #9

  • Wal
  • OFFLINE
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 4
  • Thank you received: 2
  • Karma: 0
Well done again Nitso! It will be good to watch the Coral Sea low do its thing.
Oz Cyclone Chasers - Wal
The topic has been locked.
The following user(s) said Thank You: ozcyclonechasernitso

Re: OCC Video Outlooks 06 Nov 2012 23:28 #10

  • Mick K
  • OFFLINE
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 2
  • Karma: 0
That was good Nitso.
Things are just going to improve from here on in. We will be watching both areas of instability in the coming weeks to see what happens.

I'd like to see something that will sparks a bit of interest in this forum, I'm sure that will happen soon enough. Early days so far.
The topic has been locked.

Re: OCC Video Outlooks 07 Nov 2012 20:54 #11

Thanks Mick.

Latest GFS looks awesome in the extended period and is backed up well by EC ensemble forecasts. Direction still looks to be SE though with an upper trough over the CS and the LOW attached to the SPCZ :(


Attachment coralseatropicallow.png not found

The topic has been locked.

Re: OCC Video Outlooks 07 Nov 2012 20:58 #12

  • ShaneE
  • OFFLINE
  • Secretary
  • Posts: 21
  • Thank you received: 3
  • Karma: 0
Would definitely like to chase a TC with you guys. Would rather go with people who have experience, so that I don't kill myself haha.

Hoping to go back to work in Port Hedland, so I might get that chance anyway lol.
The topic has been locked.

Re: OCC Video Outlooks 09 Nov 2012 19:36 #13

Here's our latest update everyone:




Notes from the update:

  • This season continues to be neutral in terms of both ENSO and IOD indicators
    A very dry next few weeks for most of Queensland, and a very slow build up season for NE NT, The Pilbara and most other parts of Northern Oz.
    Tropical LOW development is possible near the Solomons in about 2 weeks. This LOW is not expected to deepen into a tropical cyclone at this early stage, however it is far too early to say this with much confidence.
    Should the LOW develop further, its most likely movement would keep it well away from the Queensland coast
    Our next update will be Tuesday night
  • The topic has been locked.

    Re: OCC Video Outlooks 13 Nov 2012 20:30 #14

    Welcome to our OCC Eclipse Eve update



    NOTES

  • Nocyclone development over Australian region over the next 2 weeks
  • Possible HIGH near China in about a week to 10 days may be strong enough to push a first bout ofNE trade winds across the equator and start our NW monsoon flow just for a couple of days towards the end of November
  • Good chance of significant Solomon Island troughing developing, but the chances for a LOW out there have decreased
  • Trough systems should bring a few days of storm potential to Eastern Australia and the storm season is firing over nw Australia as moisture streams in from the Indian Ocean and Timor Sea

  • THE ECLIPSE
  • Models show the tablelands near Atherton to be a no no as well as the high ranges south of Cairns
  • Best spot to view the eclipse tomorrow is west of Mareeba and towards Mt Molloy as well as the Gulf Country and Western Peninsula
  • Cairns city is expecting 25% + cloud cover so this may limit the viewing potential of the eclipse from Cairns
  • The topic has been locked.

    Re: OCC Video Outlooks 16 Nov 2012 19:17 #15

    OCC Video Outlook November 16



    NOTES FROM VIDEO
    Very active bout of weather over Indonesia, PNG and the Solomons to continue for the forseeable future.

    The development of two LOWS in the Northern Hemisphere has delayed any cross equatorial flow and is delaying the onset of the Southern hemisphere monsoon.

    No cyclone development likely until Mid December according to the broadscale pattern, but cyclones can form from small scale convection too so keep up to date with our next video on Tuesday night.
    The topic has been locked.
    Time to create page: 0.134 seconds