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TOPIC: OCC Video Outlooks

Re: OCC Video Outlooks 13 Mar 2013 21:26 #91

  • ozcyclonechasernitso
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
MARCH 13th 2013

Tonight's briefer update looks at TC Sandra and future TC Tim

Sandra - 0:00 - 5:00
Tim - 5:00 - end

Next update March 14

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Re: OCC Video Outlooks 14 Mar 2013 21:21 #92

  • ozcyclonechasernitso
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
MARCH 14th 2013

Tonight's video bought to you by Lacoa Workforce Management looks in depth at what TC Tim is expected to do over the coming few days and what will steer him in the future.

Overall a movement towards the west is expected but the system is expected to weaken as it approaches the Qld coastline. Some heavy rain may result to regions that lie south of the cyclone/LOW's centre.

We also welcome Lacoa Workforce Management as a major partner of Oz Cyclone Chasers for the next two months. We hope it will be the start of a longer partnership together in the future.

We may issue a brief video tomorrow night if Nitso's time commitments permit. Otherwise the next video update will be on saturday March 16th around lunch time.

Thanks for watching our video updates

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Re: OCC Video Outlooks 16 Mar 2013 13:21 #93

  • ozcyclonechasernitso
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
MARCH 16th 2013

Today's video update thanks to Lacoa Workforce goes through Tim's weakening and shows why and how it is weakening. We then go through the expected future of Tim/Ex Tim. Towards the end we talk about the next LOW that could possibly form near the Top End coastline towards the end of March. We also briefly mention a system that one model is persisting in pushing west across the Coral Sea and hitting the Qld coast in the longer term. While this model has persistently shown a simillar scenario, we consider the scenario unlikely.

Next update Sunday morning

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Re: OCC Video Outlooks 17 Mar 2013 09:36 #94

  • ozcyclonechasernitso
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
MARCH 17th 2013

In this morning's cyclone update thanks to Lacoa Workforce, we see that Tim has re-intensified slightly overnight and is currently showing signs of renewed convection near the centre. We also see that wind shear hasn't really increased too much over the system. Unfortunately dry air is still an issue with moist air advecting in from the east but dry air trying to also wrap around from the north and west. Overall the major models weaken Tim and make landfall of what's left of him on the Tropical or North Tropical Coastline. But as we say, at this stage we are not seeing any signs of weakening of the system yet... We should start to see weakening this afternoon.

Longer term the far north-west Coral Sea, Gulf or far Eastern Arafura Sea is likely to become active late in March.

Next update Monday night.



Thanks for watching and remember if you wish to support us, please click on an in-video ad for a product you're interested in, share our videos with your friends, support our partners or purchase our apps. Your actions help us to raise money for our future documentary efforts. Without your support, we couldn't do what we do.
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Re: OCC Video Outlooks 18 Mar 2013 19:58 #95

  • ozcyclonechasernitso
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
MARCH 18th 2013

Tonight's video courtesy of Lacoa Workforce addresses Ex Tim and what his effects on the Queensland coastline are likely to be. The update then goes into more detail about next week's possible LOW/cyclone development over the far Northern Coral Sea or Gulf Of Carpentaria.

Next update Tuesday night.



Thanks for watching and remember if you wish to support us, please click on an in-video ad for a product you're interested in, share our videos with your friends, support our partners or purchase our apps. Your actions help us to raise money for our future documentary efforts. Without your support, we couldn't do what we do.
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Re: OCC Video Outlooks 18 Mar 2013 20:08 #96

  • xray
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where is Darwins rain ??
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Re: OCC Video Outlooks 19 Mar 2013 20:52 #97

  • ozcyclonechasernitso
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
MARCH 19th 2013

Tonight we take a final look at Ex Tim as he is expected to hit the coast north of Townsville tomorrow night as a very weak LOW. Some decent rain will fall to his south but the winds won't be too significant (unless you're on the exposed coast and islands).

Longer term we look towards the far Northern Gulf Of Carpentaria with development likely there next week.

Our next video update will be issued on FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING



Thanks for watching and remember if you wish to support us, please click on an in-video ad for a product you're interested in, share our videos with your friends, support our partners or purchase our apps. Your actions help us to raise money for our future documentary efforts. Without your support, we couldn't do what we do.
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Re: OCC Video Outlooks 22 Mar 2013 18:07 #98

  • ozcyclonechasernitso
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
MARCH 22nd 2013

Tonight's video takes a look at:

(1) strong LOW to the SW of the Cocos Islands which is packing a punch on its southern semi-circle

(2) A new LOW expected to form north of the top end coast of the Northern Territory. At this stage guidance is divided between a push of the system SE into the Western Gulf Of Carpentaria or a push to the West towards darwin. Very few models develop this system into a Tropical Cyclone, but that is due to land interaction. If the system manages to push further offshore, then conditions look favourable for intensification. The LOW forms early to mid next week and deepens later in the week.

(3) MJO discussion - we see the MJO is likely to make a re-appearance over Aussie Longitudes around the third week of April. This means it will probably be too late for an Aussie monsoon, but the MJO could possibly provide one final spark in our Aussie cyclone season.

Next update Tuesday 2nd April 2013



Thanks for watching and remember if you wish to support us, please click on an in-video ad for a product you're interested in, share our videos with your friends, support our partners or purchase our apps. Your actions help us to raise money for our future documentary efforts. Without your support, we couldn't do what we do.
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Re: OCC Video Outlooks 26 Mar 2013 20:22 #99

  • ozcyclonechasernitso
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
MARCH 26th 2013

Tonight's update deals specifically with the newly formed NT LOW. While it isn't expected to become a cyclone yet (things may change in the long term) it is expected to dump a ton of rain on the NT coastline. This should be a very welcome Easter present for the NT who have been struggling for rain this wet season.

No other tropical cyclone/LOW activity is expected over the next week near Australia.

Next video update on March 28 2013 PM or earlier if the LOW shows us any signs of deepening significantly.

Thanks for watching and remember if you wish to support us, please click on an in-video ad for a product you're interested in, share our videos with your friends, support our partners or purchase our apps. Your actions help us to raise money for our future documentary efforts. Without your support, we couldn't do what we do.

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Re: OCC Video Outlooks 28 Mar 2013 20:01 #100

  • ozcyclonechasernitso
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
MARCH 28th 2013

Tonight's video thanks to Lacoa Workforce firmly focuses on a Tropical LOW located over the Darwin/Daly region. It is creating large rainfall totals and is subject of a flood threat advice. We take a look at the LOW's expected track and the next few days of its life.

Next update tomorrow night (29th March 2013)

Thanks for watching and remember if you wish to support us, please click on an in-video ad for a product you're interested in, share our videos with your friends, support our partners or purchase our apps. Your actions help us to raise money for our future documentary efforts. Without your support, we couldn't do what we do.

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Re: OCC Video Outlooks 29 Mar 2013 19:29 #101

  • ozcyclonechasernitso
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
MARCH 29th 2013

This video thanks to Lacoa Workforce looks at the MJO forecast, the next couple of weeks in terms of tropical activity and then delves into the LOW over the Northern Territory which is dumping lots of late wet season rain on the region.

Our next video update will be available on Easter Sunday night unless the LOW does something unexpected and deepens on us.

Thanks for watching and remember if you wish to support us, please click on an in-video ad for a product you're interested in, share our videos with your friends, support our partners or purchase our apps. Your actions help us to raise money for our future documentary efforts. Without your support, we couldn't do what we do.

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Re: OCC Video Outlooks 02 Apr 2013 20:28 #102

  • ozcyclonechasernitso
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
APRIL 2ND 2013

Tonight's update Thanks to our partners Lacoa Workforce looks at the MJO and the future potential for a cyclone in the Australian region in April. Models are divided in their forecasts and it is too uncertain to make a confident call on whether Australia will be on cyclone Alert one final time before the season is over.

Stay tuned for our next update as we track the MJO on Friday night.

Thanks for watching and remember if you wish to support us, please click on an in-video ad for a product you're interested in, share our videos with your friends, support our partners or purchase our apps. Your actions help us to raise money for our future documentary efforts. Without your support, we couldn't do what we do.

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Re: OCC Video Outlooks 05 Apr 2013 15:33 #103

  • ozcyclonechasernitso
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
APRIL 5th 2013

In this update thanks to Lacoa Workforce, we cover where the rain has fallen in March and how the wet season is going so far across Australia.

We then take a look at the next week rain wise across Australia and the effect of the MJO over the next month.

We briefly talk about a new LOW forming to the West of Singapore and its possible effects on the Christmas and Cocos Islands. Models are divided on the strength and exact path of this movement.

Later in April we are seeing some model guidance suggesting a weak LOW over the far Northern Coral Sea or Solomon Sea, but none of that guidance is suggestive of tropical cyclone development.

Next update on Tuesday 9th April (unless the Cocos and Christmas Islands come under threat before then)

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Re: OCC Video Outlooks 09 Apr 2013 20:57 #104

  • ozcyclonechasernitso
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
APRIL 9th 2013

Tonight's update thanks to our partners at Lacoa Workforce looks at the development and future movement of Tropical Cyclone Victoria as well as a new LOW forming off the NE Queensland coast.

In a nutshell Victoria is expected to strengthen slightly over the next 1-2 days before weakening. It is not expected to directly affect mainland Western Australia and also poses no threat to The Christmas and Cocos Islands.

The Queensland coast will see enhanced rainfall associated with the combination of a surface and upper trough. Along that surface trough, a LOW is likely to form and push SE. It is not expected to form into a TROPICAL cyclone but will pack strong winds and heavy rain anywhere south of its centre. The Queensland LOW will likely push SE parallel and slightly further offshore. 'Assuming' that the LOW follows its expected path, the heavy rain over NE Queensland won't last for too long and will not travel down the coast.

Our next update will be issued on Friday 12th of April unless one of these systems does something we didn't expect.

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